Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
