Within the widespread uncertainty following the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a deeply alarming precedent.
A Grim History and a New Escalation
The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning saw its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.
The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and seize its president – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. We all have reason to be worried.
Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela
Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the headless administration are considerably more radical.
The Superpower as Rogue State
A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a rogue state.
He believes that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.
An Attack Without Legal Justification
George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or congressional approval; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.
Put aside the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.
The Thin Pretext and True Motives
No one buys the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.
A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.
Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies increase his appetite for distraction.
We are not yet 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.
