War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with major political parties dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the prominent figures convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year following relentless airstrikes enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under rebel administration presents a huge logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not intended for the outside world," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "progress toward democracy".